Will the Republican Party win the NY-24 House seat?
Last captured price
96.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 96.25%
$23.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly on which party wins the NY-24 House seat in the November 2026 midterms. It uses a consensus of credible reporting with a clear fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. It also explicitly handles third-party or independent winners by assessing their stated caucusing intentions once all House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for New York's 24th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are classified based on their stated caucusing intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the NY-24 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot listing or identifiable affiliation, or by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with if not listed as Democrat or Republican, assessed when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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