Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?
Current price
27.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 27.5%
$47.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly specifies the target race as the 2026 midterm election for New York's 21st congressional district. Party affiliation rules clearly account for standard ballot designations and specify caucus intent for independent candidates. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an explicit official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if results remain ambiguous. Timing aligns naturally with the conclusion of the 2026 midterm election cycle.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Democratic Party candidate wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for New York's 21st congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the NY-21 House seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by their ballot listing, or if unlisted, by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with any other party or caucus. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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