Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?
Current price
74.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 74.5%
$50.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on the party winning the NY-21 seat in the 2026 midterms. The rules specify how third-party or independent candidates will be treated by looking at ballot affiliation or caucus intent at the time house races are called. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a definitive fallback if any ambiguity arises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Republican candidate wins New York's 21st congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections. Party affiliation includes candidates lacking a ballot affiliation who express an intent to caucus with the party.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate of the NY-21 seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation counts as Republican if they most recently expressed intent to caucus with the party when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if another party wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the official fallback source in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections specified in the rules.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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