Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?
Current price
14¢
+1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 14%
$34.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on which party wins New York's 1st congressional district in the 2026 midterms. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including explicit caucus-intent provisions for independent or third-party candidates. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with a named official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. While relying on reporting consensus involves some decider judgment, the presence of a formal government fallback and standard election certification pathways makes an unexpected resolution unlikely.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for New York's 1st congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the NY-01 House seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are called, or by the candidate's most recently expressed caucus intent if not ballot-listed as a Democrat or Republican. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Democratic Party. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Midterm election date: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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