Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat?
Current price
85.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 85.5%
$19.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on standard congressional election outcomes for New York's 1st congressional district in the 2026 midterms. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified results if ambiguity arises. The rules clearly define how candidate party affiliations and third-party or independent caucus intentions are treated, minimizing surprises for participants.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Republican candidate wins the New York's 1st congressional district House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major-party ballot listing are categorized by their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the NY-01 seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party on the ballot or has most recently expressed an intent to caucus with Republicans. The market resolves No if the winning candidate belongs to or intends to caucus with another party, such as the Democratic Party. Party affiliation and caucus intent are evaluated at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Election day when the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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