Will the Republican Party win the ND-AL House seat?
Current price
96.65¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 96.65%
$44.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly based on the winning party of North Dakota's at-large congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules specify how non-major party candidates are attributed via their stated caucus intent. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. The resolution is tied to when all House elections are called, but this presents minimal risk of an unexpected outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ND-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins North Dakota's at-large congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the ND-AL House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House races are called, or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus if they lack a ballot affiliation. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. The election result is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Date of the midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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