Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?
Current price
12.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 12.5%
$8.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly identifies the specific congressional race and election date, with explicit criteria for party attribution if an independent or third-party candidate wins. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting with a defined fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified results, leaving little room for subjective surprises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the North Carolina 13th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the NC-13 seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or, for candidates without a listed major-party affiliation, by their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission (FEC) results serving as the fallback in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Election Date: — The date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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