Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?
Current price
87¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 87%
$4.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party of the candidate winning North Carolina's 13th congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including how independent or third-party candidates are categorized via their caucus intent. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a definitive backup source if any ambiguity arises. Timing and edge-case exceptions are straightforward and align with standard election result determinations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win North Carolina's 13th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections. Unaffiliated or third-party winners are classified based on their most recently stated caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the NC-13 seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation counts as Republican if they most recently expressed intent to caucus with Republicans. The market resolves No if a non-Republican candidate wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House races are called, or solely by official Federal Election Commission reporting if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date of the election.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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