Will the Democratic Party win the NC-08 House seat?
Current price
3.65¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.65%
$23.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on which party wins North Carolina's 8th congressional district seat in the 2026 midterms. The rules specify how independent or third-party candidates will be assigned to a major party based on their caucus intent at the time all House elections are called. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a definitive fallback if any reporting ambiguity arises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win North Carolina's 8th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections, including candidates who explicitly intend to caucus with the Democrats.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the NC-08 House seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party, or is an unaffiliated candidate who most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party (or caucusing with Republicans) wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, resolution relies solely on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Election day for the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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