Will the Republican Party win the NC-08 House seat?
Last captured price
95.4¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 95.4%
$33.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define what constitutes a party victory in the NC-08 House race for the 2026 midterm elections, including specific mechanisms for handling independent candidates based on their stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting, which introduces some decider judgment in determining when a consensus exists, though this is backed by an explicit official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if results remain ambiguous. There are no unusual timing delays or unexpected resolution conditions.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the North Carolina's 8th Congressional District (NC-08) seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the NC-08 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Party affiliation is based on ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House races are conclusively called. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with any other party wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) decide the resolution.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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