Will the Democratic Party win the NC-05 House seat?
Current price
11.9¢
−0.25¢ · 24h
Implied probability 11.9%
$15.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party affiliation of the candidate winning North Carolina's 5th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules specify how independent or third-party candidates will be assigned to a major party based on their caucusing intentions. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission records acting as an explicit fallback if results are contested or unclear, keeping overall risk low.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the election for North Carolina's 5th congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the NC-05 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or if not listed as Democrat or Republican, by the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus when all House elections are called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election date: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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