Will the Republican Party win the NC-05 House seat?
Current price
86.5¢
Implied probability 86.5%
$30.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning the NC-05 House seat in the 2026 midterms. Resolution is primarily guided by a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if reporting is ambiguous. The rules also clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including how independent or third-party candidates are handled based on their stated intent to caucus when all House races are conclusively called. Overall, the criteria are standard and predictable for a congressional election market.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the North Carolina 5th Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate who wins the NC-05 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called, or by their most recently expressed caucus intent if unaffiliated on the ballot with Democrats or Republicans. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, resolution relies solely on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date of the election for the NC-05 House seat.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with Federal Election Commission (FEC) official results as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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