Will the Democratic Party win the MN-05 House seat?
Current price
94.45¢
−0.95¢ · 24h
Implied probability 94.45%
$37.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning Minnesota's 5th congressional district in the 2026 midterms. The rules clearly handle potential edge cases regarding party affiliation, including independent candidates caucusing with a major party. While the primary resolution mechanism relies on a consensus of credible reporting—which introduces minor discretion—there is a definitive fallback to official election results from the Federal Election Commission in the event of ambiguity. Election certification processes can take time, but the outcome metrics and conditions are straightforward and align with standard expectations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections. Independent or unaffiliated candidates are classified by their expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with or intending to caucus with the Democratic Party wins the MN-05 seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party, such as the Republican Party, wins the seat. Candidate party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or most recently expressed caucus intent when all 2026 House races are conclusively called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source for official results.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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