Will the Republican Party win the MN-05 House seat?
Current price
3.65¢
−0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.65%
$36.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the winning political party for Minnesota's 5th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including how to handle independent or third-party candidates by looking at ballot listing or expressed intent to caucus when all House races are called. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a definitive backup source if ambiguity arises. Standard election timeline procedures apply regarding vote counting and race calls, but the overall criteria are straightforward.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Minnesota's 5th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the MN-05 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or if not listed as Democrat or Republican, by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. The election result is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the sole official fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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