Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat?
Current price
25.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 25.5%
$37K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins Minnesota's 1st congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is assigned, including explicit fallback logic for independent or third-party candidates based on caucusing intent. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission certified data serving as a backup in ambiguous cases. A holder should be aware that determining when all national House races are conclusively called involves some judgment, but the overall criteria for winning the specific district seat are standard and unambiguous.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Democratic candidate will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Minnesota's 1st congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major-party ballot listing are classified based on their stated caucusing intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the MN-01 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, either by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus with Democrats when all House elections are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Democratic Party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If reporting is ambiguous, official results from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) will decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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