Will the Republican Party win the MN-01 House seat?
Current price
74.5¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 74.5%
$19.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines the target race as Minnesota's 1st Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. Party affiliation is well-specified, relying primarily on ballot listing, with explicit tie-breaking rules based on caucusing intent for independent or third-party candidates. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting once all House races are called, backed by official Federal Election Commission results if reporting is ambiguous, giving deciders some minor latitude when evaluating media consensus before official certification.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate representing the Republican Party wins Minnesota's 1st congressional district House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major-party ballot listing are assigned to a party based on their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the MN-01 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are called, or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus if not listed as Democrat or Republican. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with the Democratic Party or another party not caucusing with Republicans. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, falling back to official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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