Will the Democratic Party win the MI-01 House seat?
Current price
10.95¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 10.95%
$12.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly on the winning political party for Michigan's 1st congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules establish clear fallback procedures for independent or non-major-party candidates based on stated caucusing intentions. While initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, an authoritative government source (the Federal Election Commission) is designated to resolve any ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with or caucusing with the Democratic Party wins Michigan's 1st congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the MI-01 seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House races are called. It resolves to No if a candidate from another party, such as the Republican Party, wins the seat. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole fallback source if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- Election day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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