Will the Republican Party win the MI-01 House seat?
Current price
87.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 87.5%
$11.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly on the winning party of Michigan's 1st congressional district in the 2026 midterms. The rules explicitly handle potential complications such as independent or third-party candidates by evaluating ballot listings and stated caucus intent. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. Timing aligns with the completion of calls across all 2026 House elections.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Michigan's 1st congressional district House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are assigned to a party based on their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the MI-01 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation, or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus if not listed as Democrat or Republican. The market resolves No if another party's candidate wins. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — The election date stated in the rules.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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