Will the Democratic Party win the MD-01 House seat?
Current price
12.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 12.5%
$48.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market straightforwardly resolves on which party wins Maryland's 1st Congressional District in the November 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single named authority, though the Federal Election Commission is specified as an official fallback if reporting is ambiguous. Rules clearly define how independent or third-party candidates will be assigned to a major party based on their caucusing intent at the time all House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win Maryland's 1st congressional district House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Party status includes ballot affiliation or declared caucusing intent for unaffiliated candidates.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the MD-01 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. For candidates without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation, membership is determined by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins. A consensus of credible reporting decides the election outcome, with official United States government results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the fallback source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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