Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat?
Current price
87¢
−1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 87%
$40.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the winning candidate's party in the 2026 MD-01 House election. The rules clearly address independent or third-party candidates by looking at ballot listing or stated intent to caucus at the time all House races are decided. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a definitive fallback if any ambiguity arises. Resolution timing depends on when all House races are called rather than a fixed calendar date, but overall the criteria align directly with standard election outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the U.S. House seat for Maryland's 1st Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are assigned based on their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the MD-01 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House races are called, or by their most recently expressed caucus intent if unaffiliated on the ballot. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — The election date for the MD-01 congressional district seat.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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