Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat?
Current price
65.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 65.5%
$25.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the official party affiliation or caucusing intent of the candidate winning the KY-06 House race in the 2026 midterms. Outcome determination relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission data serving as the definitive fallback if ambiguity arises. The rules explicitly handle potential complications such as independent or third-party candidates by defining party status via their ballot listing or stated intent to caucus at the time all House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Kentucky's 6th congressional district House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation are classified by their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the winning candidate for the KY-06 seat is affiliated with the Republican Party on the ballot or expressed intent to caucus with Republicans. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party, such as the Democratic Party, wins the seat. Party affiliation is determined at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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