Will the Democratic Party win the KS-02 House seat?
Current price
13.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 13.5%
$10.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on standard parameters for a congressional election seat. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including explicit guidance for candidates not formally on the ballot under a major party label via their stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, with a named official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. While relying on media consensus introduces some decider latitude before official certification, congressional race outcomes are objective and well-monitored, presenting minimal risk of an unexpected resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Kansas's 2nd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the KS-02 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation, or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus if not listed as Democrat or Republican. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Date of the election for the KS-02 congressional seat.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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