Will the Republican Party win the KS-02 House seat?
Current price
86.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 86.5%
$9.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning the Kansas 2nd Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterms. Resolution is primarily determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with a designated fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if reporting is ambiguous. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including explicit guidance for candidates not listed under a major party by looking at their most recently stated caucus intent once all House races are called. Overall, the criteria are standard and transparent with little potential for surprising outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the Kansas's 2nd congressional district (KS-02) U.S. House of Representatives seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate of the KS-02 U.S. House seat is affiliated with the Republican Party, either by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus when all House elections are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Republican Party. Outcome determinations rely on a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, resolution relies solely on official results from the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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