Will the Democratic Party win the IN-05 House seat?
Current price
20.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 20.5%
$15.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines how the winning party will be determined for Indiana's 5th Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterm elections. It provides clear handling for non-major party candidates by looking at ballot-listed affiliation or expressed caucus intent. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified results if any reporting ambiguity arises. Resolution timing is tied to when all House elections are conclusively called, which may take some time after election day if close races elsewhere are contested, but the criteria for this specific seat are direct and standard.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Indiana's 5th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are assigned to a party based on their stated caucusing intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the IN-05 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus if not listed as a Democrat or Republican, assessed when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results serving as the sole fallback if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections specified in the rules.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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