Will the Republican Party win the IN-05 House seat?
Last captured price
79¢
−1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 79%
$17.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined based on the winning candidate's party in the 2026 IN-05 congressional election, including clear fallback provisions for independent candidates based on their stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified data if ambiguity arises. Minor judgment may be required to assess consensus reporting before official certification, but the overall criteria are standard and predictable.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Indiana's 5th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections, including candidates who caucus with the party.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with or intending to caucus with the Republican Party wins the IN-05 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party, such as the Democratic Party, wins the seat. Candidate party affiliation is based on their ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all House elections are called. A consensus of credible reporting decides the election outcome, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the fallback source if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — The date on which the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.