Will the Democratic Party win the IN-02 House seat?
Current price
3.55¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.55%
$8.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market follows a straightforward US House race outcome for the 2026 midterm elections. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including a clear standard for independent or third-party candidates based on declared caucusing intent once all House races are called. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves some judgement to the resolver regarding media consensus, but includes a definitive official fallback to Federal Election Commission results in the event of ambiguity or dispute.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Indiana's 2nd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are assigned based on their stated caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the IN-02 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus at the time all House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity arises, resolution relies solely on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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