Will the Republican Party win the IN-02 House seat?
Current price
96.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 96.25%
$30.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning the Indiana 2nd Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterms. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including specific provisions for non-major-party candidates based on caucusing intentions. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a definitive fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. Timing aligns with the calling of all 2026 House races, leaving little room for surprise.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Indiana's 2nd congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are assigned to a party based on their stated caucusing intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the IN-02 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party on the ballot or has most recently expressed intent to caucus with Republicans. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with or intends to caucus with another party, such as the Democratic Party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If reporting is ambiguous, the Federal Election Commission serves as the deciding source.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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