Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?
Current price
37.5¢
−3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 37.5%
$17.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes a win for the Republican Party in the IA-02 congressional district for the 2026 midterm elections, including how to handle independent or third-party candidates via their stated caucusing intentions. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which requires some subjective evaluation of media consensus, but there is a clear official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. Timing and outcome criteria closely follow standard election result timelines with minimal surprise factors.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the IA-02 U.S. House of Representatives seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are classified by their expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation when all House elections are called, or by their most recently expressed caucus intent if unaffiliated on the ballot. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins the seat. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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