Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?
Current price
32.5¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 32.5%
$19.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves on the party winning the FL-27 House race in the 2026 midterms. The rules clearly handle independent or third-party candidates by looking at ballot affiliation first and stated caucusing intent as a fallback. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission records serving as the binding tiebreaker if reporting is ambiguous. Timing is linked to when all House elections are called, which provides a clear procedural timeline without unexpected early resolution triggers.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins Florida's 27th congressional district House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are assigned based on their stated caucusing intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the FL-27 congressional seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, either by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or stated intent to caucus with Democrats when all 2026 House elections are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with the Republican Party or does not caucus with Democrats. A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome. If there is ambiguity, the Federal Election Commission's official results decide.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.