Will the Republican Party win the FL-27 House seat?
Current price
66.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 66.5%
$19.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 midterm election for Florida's 27th congressional district. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including explicit caucus-intent provisions for independent or third-party candidates. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if results remain ambiguous. Timing aligns standardly with the conclusion of the 2026 House races, and there are no unexpected clauses or unusual edge cases that would surprise someone reading the core question.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the Florida's 27th Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the FL-27 House seat is affiliated with the Republican Party, either via ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed caucus intent if unaffiliated, when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a non-Republican candidate wins the seat. The election outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the definitive fallback if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — Date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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