Will the Democratic Party win the FL-26 House seat?
Current price
10¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 10%
$42.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins Florida's 26th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting rather than a single named official source, though official Federal Election Commission reporting serves as a designated fallback if reporting is ambiguous or contested. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is assigned, including a specific provision that attributes independent or unaffiliated candidates based on their stated intent to caucus when all House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Democratic candidate wins the Florida's 26th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections. Party affiliation includes ballot listing or expressed caucus intent if unaffiliated.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the FL-26 seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on their ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats if not listed as a Democrat or Republican. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If ambiguity remains, the official results from the Federal Election Commission decide the resolution.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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