Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat?
Current price
88.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 88.5%
$43.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution depends on which party wins Florida's 26th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The market relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting to determine the winner, with a fallback to official Federal Election Commission results if the outcome is contested or ambiguous. The rules explicitly specify how non-major-party candidates will be assigned to a party based on ballot listing or stated intent to caucus when all House races are called. Resolution timing depends on final election calls, but the resolution conditions align directly with standard election outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Florida's 26th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the FL-26 seat in the 2026 midterms is affiliated with the Republican Party. Affiliation is based on their ballot listing or identifiable affiliation, or for unaffiliated candidates, their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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