Will the Democratic Party win the FL-18 House seat?
Current price
4.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$37.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 midterm election for Florida's 18th Congressional District. The primary source is a consensus of credible reporting, which requires decider judgment, but an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission results provides a definitive standard if reporting is unclear or contested. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including specific provisions for third-party or independent candidates based on stated caucus intent at the time all House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate will win the Florida's 18th congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party label are assigned based on their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate of the FL-18 seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, either by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus. The market resolves No if the winning candidate belongs to another party, including Republicans or unaffiliated candidates caucusing elsewhere. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Federal Election Commission if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Election day specified in the rules.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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