Will the Republican Party win the FL-18 House seat?
Current price
94.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 94.5%
$32.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning the 2026 Florida 18th Congressional District election, using a consensus of credible reporting with official Federal Election Commission data as an explicit fallback. The criteria clearly establish how candidate party affiliation is determined, including clear fallback instructions for non-major-party candidates based on expressed caucusing intent at the time all House races are called. While relying initially on a consensus of reporting introduces minor judgment regarding what constitutes consensus, the presence of a strict fallback to official government records minimizes any surprise.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Florida's 18th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections. Party affiliation includes candidates who express intent to caucus with the party if not listed on the ballot.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the FL-18 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party on the ballot or has expressed intent to caucus with Republicans. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with or intends to caucus with another party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If reporting is ambiguous, official results from the Federal Election Commission decide the outcome.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — The election takes place on this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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