Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat?
Current price
69.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 69.5%
$34.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning Florida's 14th congressional district in the 2026 midterms. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. Party affiliation rules clearly account for independent or third-party candidates by looking at expressed caucus intent at the time all House races are called. Timing is tied directly to the November 2026 general election, leaving minimal potential for unexpected resolution mechanics.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the Florida's 14th Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the FL-14 seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party on the ballot, or if unaffiliated with either major party, has most recently expressed intent to caucus with the Democrats when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. It resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party (or caucusing with Republicans) wins the seat. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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