Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?
Current price
30.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 30.5%
$34.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on standard terms for a US House election seat in the 2026 midterms. It uses a consensus of credible reporting first, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified data if ambiguity arises. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including how independent or third-party candidates are categorized based on caucusing intent at the time the full slate of House races is called. Resolution timing depends on standard election results reporting and certification.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Florida's 14th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections, including candidates who express intent to caucus with Republicans if unaffiliated on the ballot.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the FL-14 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. An unaffiliated candidate counts as a Republican if they most recently expressed intent to caucus with the Republican Party when all House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party, such as the Democratic Party, wins the seat. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Election day: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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