Will the Democratic Party win the FL-12 House seat?
Current price
5.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.5%
$48.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that the winning candidate of the FL-12 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections decides the outcome. Party affiliation is comprehensively handled, including explicit guidance for candidates without a standard party listing based on their stated intent to caucus. While the primary resolution mechanism relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which involves some discretion in determining consensus, the rules provide a definitive fallback to official Federal Election Commission reporting if ambiguity arises. The timeline is tied to the conclusion of all House calls or official certification, minimizing unexpected timing traps.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the Florida's 12th Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the FL-12 House seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or, for candidates without a listed major-party affiliation, by their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all House races are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Democratic Party. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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