Will the Republican Party win the FL-12 House seat?
Current price
94¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 94%
$33.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution tracks the party affiliation of the candidate winning Florida's 12th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. Provisions for independent or third-party candidates are clearly defined by their declared caucusing intent at the time all House races are called, minimizing potential surprise.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the FL-12 U.S. House of Representatives seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the FL-12 seat is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate without a ballot-listed party affiliation counts as Republican if they most recently expressed an intent to caucus with Republicans. The market resolves to No if the winning candidate is affiliated with or caucuses with another party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves solely based on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — Date on which the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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