Will the Democratic Party win the FL-09 House seat?
Current price
29.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 29.5%
$9.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the winning party for Florida's 9th congressional district in the 2026 midterms. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. Specific edge cases are clearly defined: non-major party candidates are attributed based on their stated intent to caucus at the time all House races are called, ensuring unambiguous handling of third-party or independent winners.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the FL-09 U.S. House of Representatives seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party label are classified based on their stated caucusing intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning Florida's 9th congressional district seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Candidates without a ballot affiliation are treated as Democrats if they most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats when all House elections are called. The market resolves to No if a candidate from another party wins. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Midterm election date: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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