Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?
Current price
69.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 69.5%
$15.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on standard criteria regarding which party wins the Florida 9th Congressional District in the 2026 midterms. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. Rules clearly specify how non-major party affiliations are handled, relying on caucus intent at the time all House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Florida's 9th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the FL-09 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House races are called, or by their most recently stated caucus intent if they lack a ballot affiliation for the Democratic or Republican parties. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results serving as the sole source if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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