Will the Democratic Party win the FL-08 House seat?
Current price
4.05¢
−0.65¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.05%
$32.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party of the winning candidate for Florida's 8th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules establish clear primary and fallback resolution mechanisms: it resolves first on a consensus of credible media reporting, with official Federal Election Commission figures serving as a definitive tiebreaker if any ambiguity arises. Standard edge cases, such as independent candidates, are clearly addressed by looking at ballot listing or stated intent to caucus at the time all House races are called. Potential delays in final certification pose minimal surprise risk given standard election calling procedures.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with or intending to caucus with the Democratic Party wins Florida's 8th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for Florida's 8th congressional district is affiliated with the Democratic Party on the ballot, or, lacking major party ballot affiliation, most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats when all House races are called. The market resolves No if another party's candidate wins. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official Federal Election Commission results if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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