Will the Republican Party win the FL-08 House seat?
Current price
94.55¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 94.55%
$28.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the winning party for Florida's 8th Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a designated fallback to official Federal Election Commission reporting if reporting is ambiguous. The rules clearly address third-party or independent winners by assessing caucus intent at the time all House races are called, limiting ambiguity around party attribution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins Florida's 8th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the FL-08 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or most recently expressed intent to caucus when all House elections are called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — The date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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