Will the Democratic Party win the FL-07 House seat?
Current price
32¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 32%
$18.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on which party wins Florida's 7th congressional district in the 2026 midterms. The rules specify how independent or non-major party candidates will be attributed based on their stated caucus intent, and define the primary resolution mechanism as a consensus of credible reporting with the Federal Election Commission as the definitive official fallback if ambiguity arises. While consensus reporting leaves some minor judgment to deciders initially, the presence of a named official government source as the final backstop minimizes overall resolution risk.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins Florida's 7th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the FL-07 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party by ballot listing or stated intent to caucus at the time all House elections are called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. The election result is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, the market resolves based solely on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — The date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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