Will the Republican Party win the FL-07 House seat?
Current price
67.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 67.5%
$15.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines the targeted race, election cycle, and criteria for determining candidate party affiliation, including explicit rules for non-major-party candidates based on caucusing intent. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which requires some subjective judgement by the market operator to identify a consensus, but the rules include a definitive official backup source in the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. Timing is tied to when all House races are conclusively called, which aligns with standard post-election reporting timelines.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Florida's 7th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections. Candidates without a major-party ballot listing are classified by their most recently expressed caucus intent once all House races are called.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the FL-07 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with a different party. Party affiliation is determined by the candidate's ballot listing, or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus if they lack a major-party ballot affiliation, evaluated when all House races are conclusively called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — The date the 2026 midterm elections will take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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