Will the Republican Party win the CA-41 House seat?
Current price
4.4¢
+0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.4%
$12.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The outcome tracks the standard result of the 2026 midterm election for California's 41st congressional district. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single specified media outlet, though the rules provide a clear fallback to official Federal Election Commission reporting if ambiguity arises. California congressional races can take days or weeks to count all ballots, which may delay resolution, but the rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including how non-major-party candidates are attributed based on their stated intent to caucus.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-41 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party will win the California's 41st congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market will resolve to Yes if the candidate who wins the CA-41 U.S. House of Representatives seat in the 2026 midterm elections is a Republican. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with if not listed as a Democrat or Republican, assessed when all House races are conclusively called. The market will resolve to No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or officially by the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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