Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-08 House seat?
Current price
11.5¢
−1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 11.5%
$10.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves cleanly based on which political party wins the Arizona 8th congressional district seat in the 2026 midterms. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including explicit instructions for independent or third-party candidates based on ballot listing or stated caucus intentions. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a definitive backstop if any ambiguity arises. Timing aligns naturally with the conclusion of the 2026 House elections.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Arizona's 8th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the AZ-08 congressional district seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Candidates without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation are classified by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House races are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Democratic Party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Midterm election date: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.