Will the Republican Party win the AZ-08 House seat?
Last captured price
88.5¢
+2.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 88.5%
$5.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on standard congressional election outcomes for Arizona's 8th district in the 2026 midterms. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including explicit guidance for candidates not listed under a major party on the ballot by referencing their stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to the Federal Election Commission website if any ambiguity arises. Resolution timing is tied to when all House races are called rather than an immediate election night declaration, which helps prevent premature determinations during certification delays.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Arizona's 8th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the AZ-08 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. The market resolves No if a candidate not affiliated with the Republican Party wins. A winning candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or if not listed as Democrat or Republican, by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — The date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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