Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?
Current price
31.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 31.5%
$56.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines the target race as the Alabama 2nd Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The outcome depends primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified results if reporting is disputed or ambiguous. For candidates running without a major party label, the rules specify that caucus intention determines party affiliation. Participants should note that party affiliation is assessed at the moment all 2026 House races nationwide are conclusively called, which may introduce a brief timing delay if other House races face extended counts or legal challenges.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins Alabama's 2nd Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the AL-02 House seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with another party. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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