Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?
Current price
69¢
−1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 69%
$46.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on the party affiliation of the candidate elected to Alabama's 2nd Congressional District in the 2026 midterms. The rules specify how independent or third-party affiliations are handled, relying on the party they intend to caucus with. While the primary resolution mechanism is a consensus of credible media reporting, which involves some judgement, a clear fallback to official Federal Election Commission results is explicitly designated in case of ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Alabama's 2nd congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the AL-02 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or if not affiliated with the Democratic or Republican party on the ballot, by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with any other party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — The date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source for official results
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