Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Current price
2.35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.35%
$35.7M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market title asks if Trump will acquire Greenland, but the rules expand resolution criteria to include an official announcement of a future sovereignty transfer, meaning the market could resolve to Yes even if no physical transfer has taken place before the deadline. There is slight tension between the requirement in one clause for an announcement by the United States and another clause referencing an announcement made by both the United States and Denmark. Social media posts are explicitly excluded, requiring formal actions such as executive orders or signed legislation. For verification, the decider relies on official government statements from the US, Greenland, or Denmark, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty before 2027. Notably, an official announcement of an agreement qualifies for resolution even if the actual transfer of sovereignty has not yet occurred by the deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United States officially announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that the majority of Greenland's territory will come under US formal governance or jurisdiction as a state, territory, or other classification. An official announcement of an agreement or action made by the US and Denmark qualifies even if the actual transfer is yet to occur, while mere social media posts do not count. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided based on official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Announcement deadline: — Deadline for an official announcement that Greenland will come under US sovereignty.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.